Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.972105 1.108412 1.253044 1.417522 1.598957 1.792559 2.014331
2025-02-09 0.745455 0.925707 1.129811 1.376434 1.664675 1.989190 2.380376
2025-02-16 0.583141 0.787656 1.034278 1.349768 1.738523 2.197635 2.776213
2025-02-23 0.443286 0.653642 0.924214 1.290583 1.765800 2.353024 3.124181
2025-03-02 0.327881 0.530672 0.809653 1.209778 1.755721 2.460438 3.422619
2025-03-09 0.258214 0.457550 0.749944 1.192288 1.824098 2.671772 3.868957
2025-03-16 0.199960 0.389563 0.686597 1.160534 1.868341 2.853675 4.290214
2025-03-23 0.167077 0.355154 0.667805 1.190542 2.001727 3.166690 4.910587
2025-03-30 0.127147 0.299295 0.605597 1.145165 2.018271 3.314795 5.310707
2025-04-06 0.100052 0.260270 0.564537 1.127270 2.073343 3.521019 5.805520
2025-04-13 0.077267 0.223499 0.520622 1.097867 2.105766 3.693800 6.260227
2025-04-20 0.063914 0.203407 0.504207 1.113817 2.212703 3.986623 6.910089
2025-04-27 0.052367 0.184789 0.488862 1.132583 2.331084 4.313374 7.644163
2025-05-04 0.041804 0.164977 0.467237 1.136578 2.424275 4.606439 8.344073
2025-05-11 0.033447 0.148018 0.448429 1.143469 2.523154 4.915404 9.086992
2025-05-18 0.024977 0.126671 0.414533 1.114220 2.552065 5.108266 9.652905
2025-05-25 0.017495 0.104188 0.371921 1.059173 2.525459 5.202762 10.061117
2025-06-01 0.013490 0.092303 0.354040 1.056315 2.600089 5.478628 10.785996
2025-06-08 0.009958 0.079780 0.330886 1.037294 2.639663 5.693232 11.416335
2025-06-15 0.008317 0.075166 0.330161 1.072462 2.794272 6.126145 12.442788
2025-06-22 0.005797 0.063284 0.302924 1.036574 2.794338 6.271461 12.971904
2025-06-29 0.004237 0.055308 0.286034 1.024503 2.844212 6.512406 13.679789
2025-07-06 0.002950 0.047301 0.266137 1.000645 2.864847 6.697177 14.293272